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Two forces are moving through every category we cover today, and they are pushing in opposite directions.
Heat is rewriting supply. Midwest and Plains temperatures took the biggest bite out of US corn conditions since 2007. Central-region heat is cutting dairy component levels — not just milk volume — which is quietly eroding the butterfat position underpinning the world's cheapest cream. June heatwaves across France, Germany and the UK are why EU mozzarella now trades above cheddar for the first time since 2019.
The Iran war is rewriting demand. Crude's collapse after the US–Iran pause pulled wheat off a two-year high. Unilever's shares had fallen 16% since the conflict began. Coca-Cola's CEO spent his earnings call describing consumers who are re-evaluating what goes in the basket, against a US gas price that hit a four-year high of $4.56 a gallon in late May.
Supply is getting tighter and less predictable. Demand is getting more selective. Here's where that lands.
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COMPANY WATCH — PACKAGED FOOD & BEVERAGE
The consumer came back. Just not for food.
Two of the biggest names in consumer goods beat and raised on Tuesday, both on volume rather than price. A third warned that shopper budgets are tightening. The difference between them isn't geography or execution — it's category.
UNILEVER — best volume quarter since 2010
Reported 28 July. Q2 underlying sales growth of 5.8% against consensus of 4.3%. The composition matters: 5.5 points came from volume, the strongest quarterly volume performance in sixteen years.
H1 underlying sales growth 4.8% — 4.2% volume, 0.6% price
H1 turnover €25.6bn, up 0.5% against a 4.9% currency headwind
H1 underlying operating margin up 10bps to 20.3%
Underlying EPS €1.61, up 2.4%; free cash flow €1.5bn
Emerging markets up 8.3% in Q2, led by India at 10%
Power brands now 78% of turnover, growing 6.9%
Full-year guidance upgraded to within the 4–6% band, up from the bottom end, with H2 guided at 4–5% led by pricing. Shares rose as much as 6.8% to £49.43, the highest since 6 March.
The split inside the business is the story: Home Care grew 9.1%. Beauty & Wellbeing grew 5.9% on double-digit volume in Dove, Sunsilk and Vaseline. Foods grew 0.2%.
Structural: the Foods merger with McCormick is progressing, with the combined operating model, executive team and a secondary London listing announced 23 July, completion expected by mid-2027 subject to approvals. The Ice Cream demerger is done. €1.5bn buyback completed in June, €6bn planned across 2026–2029.
COCA-COLA — beat and raise on volume
Reported 28 July. Net revenues up 7% to $13.4bn, organic revenues up 6%, comparable EPS up 11% to $0.97 against a $0.93 consensus.
Global unit case volume up 5%, led by India, China, the US and Brazil
North America volume up 3%
Organic split: 4% concentrate sales, 2% price/mix
Operating margin 34.9% against 34.1% prior year
EPS up 16% to $1.03; net income $4.43bn against $3.81bn
Guidance raised across the board: comparable EPS growth to 9–10%, organic revenue to around 5%, free cash flow to roughly $12.4bn.
CEO Henrique Braun described a dynamic consumer landscape — strong economies in many places, but consumers facing inflationary pressure and geopolitical uncertainty, evaluating how they shop and what they value. Coke's own volumes show no sign of that caution.
For supply chain readers: a ransomware attack halted Fairlife production around 20 July and took roughly 4% off the stock.
PEPSICO — the counterexample
Reported earlier in July. Revenue ahead of estimates, EPS below, guidance reaffirmed rather than raised. Management said shopper budgets tightened during the quarter, producing weaker US sales in both snacks and drinks. The stock is down 2.0% year to date against Coca-Cola's 20.7% gain.
Pepsi is the cleanest test of the thesis, because it sells beverages and snacks into the same tightening US consumer. Beverages held up better than food — the same pattern visible inside Unilever.
NESTLÉ — RIG improving, quietly
Reported 23 July. H1 sales CHF 43.1bn, organic growth 3.6%, real internal growth 1.5%, pricing 2.1%. Q2 organic growth 3.7% with RIG improving to 1.8% from 1.2% in Q1. Currency took 6.2% off reported sales.
CEO Philipp Navratil framed it as a RIG-led strategy making steady progress with emerging markets accelerating. RIG rising while pricing falls is the same volume-over-price story, at a slower tempo.
KRAFT HEINZ — the split is coming
The separation into two companies — provisionally Global Taste Elevation Co. and North American Grocery Co. — remains on track for completion in the second half of 2026. One takes condiments and sauces, the other grocery staples.
For suppliers and buyers: two counterparties, two procurement functions, two sets of terms to renegotiate before year-end. If Kraft Heinz is a material account, that work should be underway now.
WHAT IT MEANS
Volume-led growth is back at the top of consumer goods, and it is the first time in several years that the biggest names have grown on units rather than price. Coke's 5%, Unilever's 5.5%, Nestlé's improving RIG — a genuine shift in how these businesses earn growth.
But it is not evenly distributed. Unilever's Foods grew 0.2% while Home Care grew 9.1%. Pepsi's snacks underperformed its beverages. The consumer buying more Dove and more Coke is not buying more packaged food.
If you sell ingredients, packaging or private label into packaged food, your customers' volume recovery may not be arriving. Beverages and household goods are pulling sector averages up, and those averages will flatter the food businesses you actually supply.
Second implication: pricing power is fading as the growth driver. Coke took 2 points of price/mix; Unilever took 0.6 across H1. If your commercial model assumes annual increases get passed through, the environment supporting that assumption is thinning — and Unilever has guided H2 growth to be led by pricing, which will test whether it still works.
Note on coverage: spirits and beer are not represented in this edition. No Diageo, Pernod Ricard or AB InBev results fell inside the window.
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FROM THE CHAIN NETWORK
AGRI CHAIN
Corn's Worst Week Since 2007
A four-point drop nobody had priced, two weeks before the yield window closes — and Iowa's strength is hiding where the real trouble is.
Inside: why the size of the drop mattered more than the drop itself · the state-by-state split the national number conceals · crop development running ahead of schedule into the most moisture-sensitive window · wheat's retreat from its two-year high and why reading it as a downtrend means reading the wrong driver · Black Sea capacity still a third below normal · what it means for Q4 and Q1 grain cover.
MEAT CHAIN
The Cattle Crash That Lasted One Day
Feeders clawed back $4.82 on Tuesday — but the November contracts quietly went the other way, and that's where the real story is.
Inside: the full two-session round trip from Monday's limit-down move · why the deferred curve fell while front months rallied · 4.25 million heifers still on feed and why rebuilding hasn't started · packer margin widening as boxes fall slower than cash · the Packers and Stockyards rollback nobody is covering · pork's short-covering setup after 12,281 contracts came off a near-record net short.
SEAFOOD CHAIN
The Salmon Trough Is Gone — And Most Buyers Missed It
Four straight weeks up off the 2026 low, and week 31 just printed the number we told you to expect in mid-August.
Inside: the four-week price series off the week 26 bottom · record Norwegian biomass at 869,000 tonnes and a market that absorbed all of it · export value outpacing volume by eight points · weekly exports pressing the effective 40,000-tonne ceiling · the Q4 risk in the 2025 sea-transfer cohort · Ecuador's ex-farm benchmark and the leverage it hands shrimp buyers.
DAIRY CHAIN
The Butterfat Trade Has Weeks, Not Months
We said US cream was the cheapest in the world and might not stay there — the plant data now shows why, and it's moving faster than the balance sheet.
Inside: what heat is doing to component levels and why that hits cream harder than volume · Class II outbidding butter for spot cream while churns hunt volume · the GDT cheddar forward curve with September down 25.3% · why 21 July was stabilisation rather than a turn · whey capacity pulled toward WPC80 and isolate.
THE THREAD
Two of today's markets absorbed a supply surge without breaking. Norway shipped a record salmon harvest and the price rose. Global dairy put nearly 20% more powder on the platform than a year ago and, after three punishing auctions, more buyers turned up — 167 participating bidders against 148 a fortnight earlier.
Two went the other way. US corn and US cream are both losing quality to heat while headline volume still looks comfortable.
And across the consumer end, the companies growing are growing on units, not price.
The common lesson for anyone setting Q4 cover: the balance sheet is telling you about volume, and volume is not what is moving these markets. Components, grade, mix, and who actually shows up to bid are doing more work than tonnage in every category on this page.
Worth checking whether your contracts are written against the variable that matters.
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The Food Chain | Daily intelligence for the people who grow, make, move, buy & sell food. Published daily by ESSFeed.
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