Welcome back,
The weekend didn't take a day off: tankers are burning near Hormuz and your freight bill is about to feel it, while the cattle market — untouchable for three years — just posted a record losing streak. Also in today's chain: Taco Bell's lettuce problem becomes everyone's traceability problem, Brussels picks feed over plant-based, and Barry Callebaut tells the cocoa market to calm down about El Niño.
Let's get into it.
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FEATURED STORY
War premiums hit the food chain
Fresh tanker attacks near Hormuz push war-risk insurance to 10% of hull value — and the bill is landing on food cargo, not just oil.
The world's most dangerous shipping lane got worse this weekend. Three more tankers were hit near the Strait of Hormuz as the US launched new strikes on Iran, and the fallout has jumped the fence from oil markets into every food and beverage supply chain: freight rates are surging, fuel surcharges are stacking up, and war-risk premiums have reached 10% of hull value on affected lanes. If you ship, import, or price anything that moves by sea, your Q4 landed costs just changed — here's where the pain is concentrated and what shippers are doing about it.
See which lanes are repricing → Freight Rates Surge as Hormuz Attacks Escalate Again
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Around the chain
CROPS — Winter wheat rallies to two-month highs before late profit-taking, while hot, dry conditions in the western Corn Belt keep corn and soy underpinned.
MEAT — While cattle cracked (see above), pork quietly firmed: the cutout is holding above $100 for the first time in weeks, with bellies up more than 11% week-on-week.
PACKAGED — Brussels picks a side: the new EU Protein Plan sets a binding 35% target for home-grown animal feed protein — and none for plant-based food, leaving a €111bn market in limbo.
PACKAGING — The rPET squeeze is building: an unprecedented number of US PET reclaimers closed last year amid rising imports and pricing pressure — recycled-content mandates are colliding with shrinking domestic supply.
FOODSERVICE — Taco Bell's lettuce crisis passes 1,600 confirmed cases across five states, with a single Mexican supplier traced as the source — a traceability warning for every buyer.
RETAIL — The inflation fig leaf is gone: US grocery unit volumes are falling ~2% a month in every region, says Bain — shoppers aren't trading down anymore, they're buying less.
LOGISTICS — Beyond Hormuz, the transpacific is heating up too: Far East–US West Coast spot rates are running 91% above last year as peak-season surcharges kick in and June US imports jumped 8.2%.
INGREDIENTS — El Niño warnings are flashing over West Africa again, but Barry Callebaut says ample stocks mean no repeat of the 2023/24 cocoa crisis.
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MEAT INDUSTRY
Cattle Just Blinked
A record 15 straight lower closes — August futures shed $10.77 in a week. Is the greatest beef bull run ever finally over?
For three years, cattle only went up. A 75-year-low US herd and packers scrambling for scarce supply built the strongest bull market beef has ever seen — until last week, when the cattle complex became the only major US commodity to buckle, and did it with a record losing streak. Record beef imports are flipping the maths, and the question every protein buyer and producer is now asking: is the 2026 top already in? You can see the damage in today's market board above — this is the story behind that red arrow.
Read why the bulls are running for cover → Cattle Prices Crash: Is the Great Beef Bull Run Over?
Today’s Poll
Is the Red Sea/Hormuz crisis hitting your landed costs yet?
That's the chain for today.
The thread running through it all: costs are moving — on the water, at the feedlot, in the freight contract — faster than most buyers' budgets assumed a month ago. If your Q4 numbers were built in June, it might be time to reopen the spreadsheet.
Hit reply and tell me: are the Hormuz premiums showing up in your landed costs yet, or is it still someone else's problem? Best answers get featured tomorrow — and don't forget to vote in the poll above; results in the morning.
See you tomorrow,
The Food Chain, ESSFeed Intelligence
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